挣得起赔不起,2015年11月最新蛋鸡存栏数据

作者:养殖业

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portant; font-size: 16px; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; border-right-width: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; border-bottom-width: 0px; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 10px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; border-left: rgb 5px solid; margin: 5px 0px 13px; line-height: 30px; padding-right: 10px; border-top-width: 0px; text-indent: 2em; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased">经济学十大原理之十:社会面临通货膨胀与失业之间的短期交替关系

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 农业的融资成本是很高的,如果能像联想那样钱多,也就会安下心来,做好十年不挣钱的准备,放长线吊大鱼,但大多数投资农业的经营主体没有这个实力,只能在资金的问题上苦苦挣扎。在农地无法抵押、担保困难等情况下,关键农时季节也就只有靠民间融资了,光高昂的利息成本就能吞噬掉大量的利润,一旦市场行情没有达到预期,便只有上演《多收了三五斗》的现代版故事。而投资周期又那么长,于是倒在黎明前便成为农业投资一个重要的现象。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; border-width: 0px 0px 2px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb; font-size: 14px; color: rgb; display: block; float: left; line-height: 28px; font-weight: bold; font-family: 宋体, sans-serif !important;">蛋价明年预期

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">蛋价明年预期:或震荡向上至7元/斤以上portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">广州日报记者走访市场发现,广州的鸡蛋零售价格确实已从高位回落,东川市场的普通蛋报价,由9~10月的7.3元/斤高点回落到了目前的6.5元/斤,但仍比年初价格高出60%以上,与7月高点持平。而全国鸡蛋市场的批发价格则呈现出了高位波动的态势,各省涨跌不一,鸡蛋主产区的蛋市,抄底氛围浓厚。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国国企期货的分析师招泳勤分析认为:从短线来看,受鸡肉等禽类价格反复筑底等偶然性因素影响,portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">鸡蛋价格会被“殃及池鱼”,难以形成冲高走势。但从跨年的中长线行情来看,前景比较乐观:基本面方面,全国蛋鸡数量目前位于8年低位,北方极端天气仍多,均不利于产蛋,供不应求的局面至少延续到2015年下半年;禽类市场不景气的局面,反而能长线支持蛋价上扬。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">从技术面来看,市场做多情绪依然高涨,多数机构高看2015年一季度鸡蛋期货价格高至5200元以上,距离目前点位仍有约10%的涨价空间,现货价格比较可能继续震荡向上,走高至7月/斤以上。由于其他品种的农产品走势萎靡,鸡蛋期货一枝独秀,更能吸引资金的关注度。这些行情都是已经过了的,所谓期货人员预测的是否准确,自己衡量对比就可以了!

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 宋体, "宋体"; font-size: 4px;"> 要想做赢现代农业,你要懂政策、懂农业、懂合作、懂营销、懂管理、懂创新,还要懂自己。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 21px; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; line-height: 21px; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 宋体, "宋体"; font-size: 4px;"> 真正的现代农业模式还是需要认真研究下的。没考虑好之前,最好还是不要一脚踏进去!

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; border-width: 0px 0px 2px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb; font-size: 14px; color: rgb; display: block; float: left; line-height: 28px; font-weight: bold; font-family: 宋体, sans-serif !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">“火箭蛋”炼成记:低吸、抬价、高抛

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">老周说:2014年,他在行内投机鸡蛋先后投资了570万元,只能算个散户,远比不上“庄家”的级别;他的贸易商同行中,投资2000万~5000万元的人大有人在。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">1、当走货评分在收货评分上方时,鸡蛋价格处于上涨阶段。

近年来,为什么有大量的知名企业纷纷选择投资农业?

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; border-width: 0px 0px 2px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb; font-size: 14px; color: rgb; display: block; float: left; line-height: 28px; font-weight: bold; font-family: 宋体, sans-serif !important;">补仓:专攻“标志性”市场 再赚差价

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">补仓:专攻“标志性”市场 再赚差价portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">而7月以后,由于少数老伙伴们已经获利了结,老周的队伍就剩下了3个人,目前不再去养殖场抬价,而专攻“标志性”市场,被称为“补仓”。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">“说起来容易,操作起来不容易。”老周的“搭档”原籍河南的贸易商老李如是补充说:“时点要把握得特别好,否则机会转瞬即逝。我们的经验是:要抓准偶然性事件,要么是国家公布新政策,要么是出现突发性新闻。”portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">那么,老周他们收益如何?广州日报记者了解到:由于2014年“炒鸡蛋”的多是贸易商、养殖企业关联户,资金量有限、操作经验更有限;对比2008年~2012年的炒大蒜、生姜与绿豆的专业投机客,老周们的收益仅仅能用“可观”来形容。“我一共炒卖了三次,赚的其实就是差价,抛开打飞的、运作成本,也就赚了个一两百万元,还不如今年炒股票吧!炒股票坐家里就成了。”而据老周所知,他的大户同行们也少有人一夜暴富。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">据老周介绍,炒鸡蛋想大赚不容易。一方面,各地政府管理比较严格,明目张胆的农产品投机行为是不可能实现的,老周们能大量买蛋,也是因为熟门熟路,且本来就是合法贸易商。第二,老周他们也不好意思大举投机。“我们不像那些以前炒大蒜、生姜会投机客,炒一把就走;不炒作了,我们还得继续做贸易生意,都是一个圈子的,不太好意思不断投机。”

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; text-transform: none; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font: 16px/25px 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Hiragino Sans GB', '宋体', sans-serif; padding-left: 0px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; widows: 1; margin: 0px 0px 20px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%" />

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 14px; color: rgb; display: block; float: left; line-height: 28px; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb; font-weight: bold; font-family: 宋体, sans-serif !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 他们看中的是现代农业的利润。多数的经济作物种植和畜牧养殖测算出来的利润率并不低,这是农业吸引众多资本竞相投入的重要原因。联想控股董事长柳传志甚至说,现代农业利润可能比卖电脑还高。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">近期国内portant;">鸡蛋价格portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">高位回落,家住广东东莞常平镇的贸易商老周却忙得不亦乐乎。两周时间里,他飞山东飞湖北又飞河北,凌晨时间就进驻了冰天雪地的批发市场,缩脖端架地等着收购蛋。“投资要赶早,来晚了,就被别的人抢买了。”老周解释说:“不要以为现在蛋价跌了,后市就会大跌价;现在原产地的蛋鸡加起来,不到2012年顶峰时期的四分之三,能下几多蛋?2015年,还是会涨。”

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">芝华每日与全国重点产销区近100家鸡蛋贸易商联系,了解每日鸡蛋贸易形势,并对每日收货、走货、库存、预期看法进行评分,评分等级分为3级,评分说明具体如下:

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; border-width: 0px 0px 2px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb; font-size: 14px; color: rgb; display: block; float: left; line-height: 28px; font-weight: bold; font-family: 宋体, sans-serif !important;">作价:“砸单”让蛋价瞬间飞涨

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">“我本来做的就是鸡蛋贸易生意,每年循规蹈矩从湖北浠水、江苏盐城向广东贩运各类农产品。但今年初,鸡蛋期货推出了,市场做多情绪特别高涨,同行都说:我们熟门熟路,不如趁机博一博,就这么入行投资了。开始时也不过是多进几百公斤货,后来喝了头啖汤,手里钱多了,也就‘做大’一些。”portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">老周他们是如何炒作鸡蛋的?独木难成舟,一般有5~6个人组团成行、分工行事。今年4~6月的操作如下所示:一拨熟悉进货来源的人会去北方的养殖企业大举拿货,一周3~4次,每次拿货量会比上一次多出20%,这让供货企业产生供不应求的“错觉”,产生提价的冲动。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">而另外一拨人则去类似湖北浠水、河北馆陶等3~5个全国最有标志性的农副产品批发市场“抬价”,约定某日早市8:00开始,用大量资金“砸”买鸡蛋,几十万元、几十万元地连续下单。一般来说,一个批发市场早市的现货鸡蛋加总起来也不过30万~50万公斤,大批发市场也只能达到100万公斤。500万元资金足可以把一个批发市场所有的现货鸡蛋全买下来;“砸单”结果可想而知,瞬间“涨停”,价格一天涨了一两毛。全国市场视这几个市场马首是瞻,“火箭蛋”应运而生。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px; text-transform: none; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font: 16px/25px 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Hiragino Sans GB', '宋体', sans-serif; padding-left: 0px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; widows: 1; margin: 0px 0px 20px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 通货膨胀是经济中物价总水平的上升。 portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />什么引起了通货膨胀?在大多数严重或持续的通货膨胀情况下,罪魁祸首结果总是相同的:货币量的增长。当一个政府创造了大量本国货币时,货币的价值下降了。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 农民能做的事,企业不一定能做,因为农民不向自己讨要工资,挣多挣少都是自己的。好多产业的利润率在去除人工费以前,看上去很美。典型的就是肉牛产业,市场牛肉价格那么高还十分紧俏,想起来肯定利润不错,但却少有企业问津,根本的原因还是不挣钱。因为养牛周期太长,一般得两年以上,企业养殖成本太高,只有山区的农民可以养,场地不用建,草料主要靠山上的草来解决,人力成本也很低,最终利润还不错。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />如果企业养,则场地、草料、人工、资金等成本高,就目前的市场行情来说,也难挣钱。再看市场上那些节节攀升的农产品价格,基本有一条规律,凡是能够工业化的、机械化的,就涨得慢甚至比较便宜;凡是无法工业化、机械化的,肯定比较贵,而且一年贵似一年。过去嘲笑发达国家水比奶贵,菜比肉贵,如今在中国也差不多了。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />今年的肉价便宜得连消费者都有些受不了,但菜价总体依然在涨,如今菜市场哪里还有几毛钱的菜?再像花椒,大家抱怨花椒20多元一斤太贵,其实一斤花椒里仅采摘环节的人工费就在二三元,更不算平时的田间管理、生产投入等费用,平均下来一亩也就挣个千把元,价格看似不错,农民放弃的还是不少。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />现在不断上涨的苹果价格也与人工费有关,疏花、疏果、套袋、除袋、采摘等环节,人工费一天就上百元;还有平常的施肥、喷药,哪一样不是靠人工,如今在果区,开着私家车送农工上果园绝非什么稀奇事,没有这样的条件,连农工都招不来。像蔬菜、水果这类劳动密集型产业,不算好了人工费,利润肯定大打折扣。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />

本篇文章虽然是历年的,但仍旧可以看出炒作蛋的内幕,大家不是一直觉得鸡蛋大起大落一定有人为炒作的成分吗,所以小编找出14年12月份的一篇文章,大家可以看出这些蛋商是如何操作的,常在江湖漂,多了解了解一些也是极好滴!

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-weight: bold; color: rgb.青年鸡存栏量

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb; line-height: 28px; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb; float: left; display: block;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; border-radius: 80% 100% 90% 20%; color: rgb; background-color: rgb;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">第二农产品不是完全市场定价

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">近期如他这样逢低抄底的贸易商、投机客数量众多,不少于今年3~4月;由于产蛋鸡数量降至8年最低、期货市场做多情绪高涨,portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb;">业内人士预期:2015年的蛋价仍趋向于震荡向上。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px; text-transform: none; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font: 16px/25px 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Hiragino Sans GB', '宋体', sans-serif; padding-left: 0px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; widows: 1; margin: 0px 0px 20px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 许多决策涉及到对现有行动计划进行微小的增量调整,经济学家把这些调整称为边际变动。 portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />假设某养殖户有3000养殖量,卖鸡时选择小车拉鸡,那么价格绝对高于大车价位1毛才划算,最后鸡舍剩200只鸡没人愿意拉,因为是挑剩的鸡,如果这时候有人出等于大车价位或者低于大车1毛,这时候要不要卖给他?答案是肯定的,因为如果还想高价卖鸡,剩下的鸡成本会明显高于平均成本,但是低价卖的话,相对于坚持卖高价利润还要多一些。 portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />只有一种行动的边际收益大于边际成本,一个理性决策者才会采取这项行动。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-family: 宋体, "宋体"; font-size: 4px;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px; text-transform: none; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font: 16px/25px 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Hiragino Sans GB', '宋体', sans-serif; padding-left: 0px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; widows: 1; margin: 0px 0px 20px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 很多情况下,某种行动的成本并不像乍看时那么明显。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 14px; color: rgb; display: block; float: left; line-height: 28px; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb; font-weight: bold; font-family: 宋体, sans-serif !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">农业的利润跑哪里去了?是一个值得反思的问题。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">从规模方面来看,5万只以下规模蛋鸡养殖户在产蛋鸡存栏量减少,5万只-10万只规模蛋鸡养殖户在产蛋鸡存栏量小幅增加,10万-50万规模蛋鸡养殖户在产蛋鸡存栏量增加,50万以上规模蛋鸡养殖户在产蛋鸡存栏量减少。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 农产品区别于工业产品的最大特征是鲜活性,保鲜储藏不仅技术上困难,而且成本上居高不下,最后的储藏环节损失不是一个小数字。即使粮食这样的耐藏型农产品,储藏环节的损失也在8%-10%,更不要说生鲜农产品了。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />一般的蔬菜从田间地头到长途贩运再到菜市场再到消费者手里,到底要损耗多少?比如,大家常见的大白菜,从地头到消费者手里这个过程中究竟要被扒掉多少层皮?还有失水,蔬菜、水果的含水量一般在90%以上,运输过程中失水是常事,不仅重量下降,而且品相变坏。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />上面说的还是正常损耗,一般就在30%左右。现在就可以明白为什么初期的生鲜电商都倒掉了?因为他们天真地与菜市场较上了劲,以为淘宝模式能照搬到农产品上来,其不知菜市场这种批发零售模式恰恰是农产品销售环节效率最高、成本最低的。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />再傻的卖菜者也知道,千万不能让当天的新鲜蔬菜过夜,而网售的生鲜农产品竟然要几天时间才能到消费者手里,这样能有好结果吗?至于最惨的情形就是卖不出去了,对于工业品而言,市场不好,大不了减价处理,可农产品一旦过剩起来,只能眼争争地看着烂在库里、烂在地里,因为远距离运输,运费比菜贵。而且时节一过,马上要种下一茬作物,只能机械翻耕入土,做了绿肥,一季心血全白费了,还搭进去肥料、农药、人工、机械等费用。碰上这种情况,还谈什么利润?portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 农业挣钱不容易,但赔起来却容易得多。算好的利润根本经不起风险的冲击。农业的风险真的不好控,全国每年遭受自然灾害的农作物面积大约占1/6,主要的包括旱灾、洪涝、冰雹、霜冻、病虫害等,防不胜防,算好的利润一次自然灾害可能就没有了。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />比如,春季一场倒春寒可能导致核桃、苹果、花椒等经济树木花芽冻死,直接影响当年的产量,严重的可导致绝收。再比如,一次冰雹,可以让本来能卖三块钱一斤的苹果一夜间伤痕累累,最后只能以几毛钱的价格处理给果汁厂。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />2014年春节前后的禽流感传闻导致全国家禽业受到重创,价格下跌,销售不畅,广大家禽养殖场户损失惨重,但这个损失谁来赔?目前农业保险的覆盖度还很有限,大多数遭灾的情况下是没有保险来赔付的,这个风险只能自己扛。风险面前哪有利润可言!portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />

portant; font-size: 16px; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; border-right-width: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; border-bottom-width: 0px; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 10px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; border-left: rgb 5px solid; margin: 5px 0px 13px; line-height: 30px; padding-right: 10px; border-top-width: 0px; text-indent: 2em; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased">经济学十大原理之八:一国的生活水平取决于它生产物品与劳务的能力

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 1portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb; line-height: 28px; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb; float: left; display: block;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; border-radius: 80% 100% 90% 20%; color: rgb; background-color: rgb;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">第四.要看到底烂了多少?

portant; font-size: 16px; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; border-right-width: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; border-bottom-width: 0px; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 10px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; border-left: rgb 5px solid; margin: 5px 0px 13px; line-height: 30px; padding-right: 10px; border-top-width: 0px; text-indent: 2em; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased">经济学十大原理之二:某种东西的成本是为了得到它而放弃的东西

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">3、当走货评分与收货评分交叉时,这时往往是鸡蛋价格上涨或下跌的信号。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb; line-height: 28px; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb; float: left; display: block;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; border-radius: 80% 100% 90% 20%; color: rgb; background-color: rgb;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">第一.毛利率会骗人

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px; text-transform: none; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font: 16px/25px 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Hiragino Sans GB', '宋体', sans-serif; padding-left: 0px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; widows: 1; margin: 0px 0px 20px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">人们通常认为降低通货膨胀会引起失业暂时增加。通货膨胀与失业之间的这种交替关系被称为菲利普斯曲线。 portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />当政府减少货币量时,它就减少了人们支出的数量。较低的支出与居高不下的价格结合在一起就减少了企业销售的物品与劳务量。销售量减少又引起企业解雇工人,就暂时增加了失业。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 2portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: 218px !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb; line-height: 28px; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb; float: left; display: block;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; border-radius: 80% 100% 90% 20%; color: rgb; background-color: rgb;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">第七.还有一些说不清的没名堂的东西

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 这个东西也可以算作一般投资上所说的“不可预见”费用,做农业与相关方面特别是农村的方方面面打交道多,交点费,拉点赞助,类似的没有名堂的东西不仅常见,而且开销不少,也是硬性的成本支出,但好多估计不足,也影响了利润。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb; line-height: 28px; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb; float: left; display: block;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; border-radius: 80% 100% 90% 20%; color: rgb; background-color: rgb;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">第六你和利息在PK

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px; text-transform: none; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font: 16px/25px 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Hiragino Sans GB', '宋体', sans-serif; padding-left: 0px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; widows: 1; margin: 0px 0px 20px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 政府干预经济的原因有两类:促进效率和促进平等。 portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />经济学家用市场失灵这个词来指市场本身不能有效配置资源的情况。 portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />市场失灵的一个可能原因是外部性。污染的例子:如果一家化工厂不承担排放烟尘的全部成本,它就会大量排放。 portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />另一个可能原因是市场势力。假设镇里只有一口井,这口井的所有者对水的销售就有市场势力。 portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />政府有时可以改善市场结果并不意味着它总能这样。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 农产品特别是粮食、生猪等主要农产品,因为牵涉到民以食为天这个治国理政的根本稳定问题,所以每个国家都不会完全市场化,而是强力进行宏观调控,确保供给的数量有保障,而且价格比较平稳。有经济学家开玩笑说,一头猪就绑架了CPI,现实情况也差不多。由于中国居民膳食以猪肉为主要肉食品种,且近年价格波动十分剧烈,对整个物价指数的影响确实不小。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />所以,只要猪价一露头就得打压,又是生产领域补贴,又是投放储备肉,又是进口补充,非得把价格拉下来不可。而生产一旦下来了,取消补贴,开始冻猪肉收储,但扩大出口却难。收储冻猪肉来托市可以理解,但取消补贴则让生产者雪上加霜。所以,农产品的利润不可避免地要受到国家宏观调控的影响,这是一个不可忽视的重要因素。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> 纸面上算出来的利润对于二三产业可能是可靠的,但对于农业就不一定行。比如,超市的一般毛利率得保持在20%-25%之间,这样才能保证净利润在3%-5%左右。那么农业需要多少的毛利率才能保证挣钱?这是一个在实践中不好回答的问题,因为这种测算也只能是起一点参考作用,根本不适用,农业的市场波动大而且不好预测,某种程度上不亚于撞大运,“蒜你狠”“姜你军”就是这样。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />以养猪为例,行内的基本都知道“一年挣、一年平、一年亏”这个三年一轮的猪周期,而且第一年必须把后两年的钱挣回来。但生猪产业投资时的利润是怎样测算的?是按每头生猪挣100元测算的,在实践中哪有吻合的时候!到现在更要命,因为从去年底开始,“猪周期”也无情地被打破了,去年下半年重资杀入抢谷底的全部套牢,2014年春节更是出现了前所未有的逆市下跌,将节日必涨的规律也打破了,在这种情况下,算好的利润基本上是一种讽刺。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px; text-transform: none; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font: 16px/25px 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Hiragino Sans GB', '宋体', sans-serif; padding-left: 0px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; widows: 1; margin: 0px 0px 20px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; color: rgb">养鸡的成本,并不是只有苗,饲料和兽药、煤炭之类,还有时间,如果你不养鸡,你出去打工每年的收入也是养鸡的成本之一,因为你养鸡而放弃了打工的工资。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 4portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb; line-height: 28px; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb; float: left; display: block;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; border-radius: 80% 100% 90% 20%; color: rgb; background-color: rgb;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">第三人工是个大成本

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px; text-transform: none; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font: 16px/25px 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Hiragino Sans GB', '宋体', sans-serif; padding-left: 0px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; widows: 1; margin: 0px 0px 20px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 天下没有白吃的午餐。为了得到一件东西,通常不得不放弃另一件东西。作出决策要求我们在一个目标与另一个目标之间有所取舍。 portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />如眼下行情动荡,我们面临着退出和留下并优化养殖方式的交替,社会面临效率与平等的交替。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 14px; color: rgb; display: block; float: left; line-height: 28px; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb; font-weight: bold; font-family: 宋体, sans-serif !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">那怎样才能从如此高风险的现代农业投资中获得利润呢?

portant; font-size: 16px; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; border-right-width: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; border-bottom-width: 0px; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 10px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; border-left: rgb 5px solid; margin: 5px 0px 13px; line-height: 30px; padding-right: 10px; border-top-width: 0px; text-indent: 2em; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased">经济学十大原理之五:贸易能使每个人状况更好

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; color: rgb; line-height: 28px; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb; float: left; display: block;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; border-radius: 80% 100% 90% 20%; color: rgb; background-color: rgb;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">第五.能挣得起,赔不起

portant; font-size: 16px; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; border-right-width: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; border-bottom-width: 0px; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 10px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; border-left: rgb 5px solid; margin: 5px 0px 13px; line-height: 30px; padding-right: 10px; border-top-width: 0px; text-indent: 2em; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased">经济学十大原理之四:人们会对激励作出反应

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />但是,一做起来就不是那么回事,好多投资农业的亏得一塌糊涂,还搞不明白怎么死的。经济作物和养殖产业,不能用工业那套来计算利润!农业是动植物生命的繁衍,受生物规律和自然气候条件的根本制约,有明显的季节性、区域性和周期性。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />农业利润远没有想象中的那么好!这是必须要了解的,只有深知做农业的难,才能谨慎选择,把困难和风险预估地大一点,避免栽跟头。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px; text-transform: none; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font: 16px/25px 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Hiragino Sans GB', '宋体', sans-serif; padding-left: 0px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; widows: 1; margin: 0px 0px 20px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">用什么来解释各国和不同时期中生活水平的巨大差别呢?答案之简单出人意料之外。几乎所有生活水平的变动都可以归因于各国生产率的差别:一个工人一小时所生产的物品与劳务量的差别。同样,一国的生产率增长率决定了平均收入增长率。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px; text-transform: none; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font: 16px/25px 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Hiragino Sans GB', '宋体', sans-serif; padding-left: 0px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; widows: 1; margin: 0px 0px 20px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">贸易使每个人可以专门从事自己最擅长的活动。通过与他人交易,人们可以按较低的价格买到各种各样的物品与劳务。 portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />经济中每个养殖业链条都互相竞争,但是把你的环节与所有其他环节隔绝开来并不会过得更好,如果是这样的话,你就必须自己养种鸡,搞孵化,养殖和屠宰。 portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />国家和链条一样也能从相互交易中获益。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">1.从蛋鸡鸡龄结构来看,2015年11月份鸡龄结构呈现“前高后两头低”的特点。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px; text-transform: none; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font: 16px/25px 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Hiragino Sans GB', '宋体', sans-serif; padding-left: 0px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; widows: 1; margin: 0px 0px 20px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"> 在一个市场经济中,中央计划者的决策被千百万企业和环节的决策所取代。这些企业和家庭在市场上相互交易,价格和个人利益引导着他们的决策,他们仿佛被一只&看不见的手所指引,引起了合意的市场结果。 portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />价格指引这些个别决策者在大多数情况下实现了整个社会福利最大化的结果。 portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />市场经济:当许多企业和家庭在物品与劳务市场上相互交易时通过他们的分散决策配置资源的经济。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 5portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 6portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px; text-transform: none; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font: 17px/28px 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Hiragino Sans GB', '宋体', sans-serif; padding-left: 0px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; widows: 1; margin: 0px 0px 20px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%" />

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">根据芝华对蛋鸡存栏数据的统计监测,最新2015年11月蛋鸡空栏量较2015年10月portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb;">增加,增加1.71%portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。11月份空栏量增加的原因是全国蛋鸡总存栏出现减少。(附注:空栏量是指没有存栏的鸡舍未来可以存栏的最大总量。)

portant; font-size: 16px; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; border-right-width: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; border-bottom-width: 0px; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 10px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; border-left: rgb 5px solid; margin: 5px 0px 13px; line-height: 30px; padding-right: 10px; border-top-width: 0px; text-indent: 2em; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased">经济学十大原理之七:政府有时可以改善市场结果

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portant; font-size: 16px; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; border-right-width: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; border-bottom-width: 0px; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 10px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; border-left: rgb 5px solid; margin: 5px 0px 13px; line-height: 30px; padding-right: 10px; border-top-width: 0px; text-indent: 2em; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased">经济学十大原理之三:理性人考虑边际量

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 8portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

portant; font-size: 16px; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; border-right-width: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; border-bottom-width: 0px; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 10px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; border-left: rgb 5px solid; margin: 5px 0px 13px; line-height: 30px; padding-right: 10px; border-top-width: 0px; text-indent: 2em; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased">经济学十大原理之六:市场通常是组织经济活动的一种好办法

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portant; font-size: 16px; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; border-right-width: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; border-bottom-width: 0px; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 10px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; border-left: rgb 5px solid; margin: 5px 0px 13px; line-height: 30px; padding-right: 10px; border-top-width: 0px; text-indent: 2em; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased">经济学十大原理之九:当政府发行了过多货币时,物价上升

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 9portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; text-transform: none; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font: 16px/25px 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Hiragino Sans GB', '宋体', sans-serif; padding-left: 0px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; widows: 1; margin: 0px 0px 20px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold;">.portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold;">每月新增开产量与淘汰量估计:

portant; font-size: 16px; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; border-right-width: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; border-bottom-width: 0px; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 10px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; border-left: rgb 5px solid; margin: 5px 0px 13px; line-height: 30px; padding-right: 10px; border-top-width: 0px; text-indent: 2em; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased">经济学十大原理之一:人们面临交替关系

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px; text-transform: none; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font: 17px/28px 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Hiragino Sans GB', '宋体', sans-serif; padding-left: 0px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; widows: 1; margin: 0px 0px 20px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">portant; font-size: 16px; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: pre-wrap; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; line-height: 25px; background-color: rgb; text-indent: 2em">经济学是一门研究人类一般生活事务的学问,经济学原理可以运用到生活中的许多方面,它可以帮助你了解你所生活的世界,可以使你更精明地参与经济,无论你今后身处何方,你都会为学习过经济学而感到欣慰。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-weight: bold; color: rgb.全国蛋鸡总存栏量

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">根据芝华对鸡蛋贸易形势监测,11月份鸡蛋价格小幅上涨,主产区均价由月初3.4元/斤上涨至月末3.61元/斤,涨幅6.2%。11月份鸡蛋贸易形势走货、收货变化较大,整体来看“收货变难、走货变快、库存较少”,相比10月鸡蛋贸易形势有好转。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-weight: bold; color: rgb;">二、11月份全国鸡蛋贸易形势

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; max-width: 100%; white-space: pre-wrap; word-spacing: 0px; text-transform: none; word-break: break-all; color: rgb; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font: 16px/25px 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Hiragino Sans GB', '宋体', sans-serif; padding-left: 0px; clear: both; min-height: 1em; widows: 1; margin: 0px 0px 20px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb; text-indent: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />贸易使每个人可以专门从事自己最擅长的活动。通过与他人交易,人们可以按较低的价格买到各种各样的物品与劳务。 portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />经济中每个养殖业链条都互相竞争,但是把你的环节与所有其他环节隔绝开来并不会过得更好,如果是这样的话,你就必须自己养种鸡,搞孵化,养殖和屠宰。 portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />portant; word-wrap: break-word; max-width: 100%; font-family: Verdana, Arial; white-space: normal; word-break: break-all; font-weight: bold; line-height: 25px" />国家和链条一样也能从相互交易中获益。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">根据芝华对蛋鸡存栏数据的统计监测,最新2015年11月在产蛋鸡存栏量为12.12亿只,较10月portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb;">减少1.2%,同比去年portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb;">增加5.28%。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 10portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 11portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold;">.后备鸡存栏量

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">4、走货评分与收货评分交叉形成的区域大小,能够反应鸡蛋价格涨跌的幅度。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">收货方面,11月份收货好收,相比10月份收货变难,其中华东地区、西南地区收货好收。走货方面,11月份走货正常偏慢,相比10月份走货好转,其中西南地区、西北地区走货偏快。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb2015年11月份开产中的鸡龄占比为66.84%,相比10月份变动幅度为portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb;">减少3.12%。其中主要是150-210,300-330天的鸡龄占比减少较为明显,这与目前市场上小蛋较少相印证。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">通过近一年多的跟踪联系,可得出收货、走货、库存、预期看法存在一定的逻辑关系,具体表现如下:

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 12portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">通过芝华对湖北信息站监测可了解到,贸易商的库存量呈现一个剧烈波动的过程。贸易商库存量与蛋价存在一定的相关性,当库存量逐步增加时,蛋价处于下跌阶段;当库存量逐步减少时,蛋价处于上涨阶段;当库存量维持高位或维持低位时,蛋价往往处于低位震荡或高位震荡阶段。11月份湖北贸易库存量一直处于低位,蛋价上涨。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold;">.细分蛋鸡鸡龄统计:

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 13portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-weight: bold; color: rgb.育雏鸡补栏量

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 14portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">通过芝华对广东信息站监测可了解到,11月份到车数量较10月份到车数量增加,11月份总到车数为1827台,环比10月增加82台,整体到车数量增加,蛋价上涨,需求好转。11月份市场上大码蛋占比多,中小码蛋占比少。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb2015年11月份后备鸡鸡龄占比为23.59%,相比10月份变动幅度为portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb;">增加2.76%,其中30-90天小鸡占比较大。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">(注:每月新增开产量与淘汰量根据历史鸡龄结构与存栏数据进行推算,推算过程中忽略死亡率。)

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb2015年11月份450天以上的即将淘汰的蛋鸡鸡龄占比为9.58%,相比10月份变动幅度为portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb;">增加0.36%。其中450-480天的鸡龄占比增加,480-540天的鸡龄占比减少。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-weight: bold; color: rgb;">一、历史贸易形势情况解析

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 15portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">2.总体来看,30-90天鸡龄占比较大,90-120天鸡龄占比增加,后市新增开产量将逐步增加;而450天以上可淘老鸡占比仅为9.58%,2014年11月450天以上老鸡占比为14.89%,今年老鸡占比较少,而每斤鸡蛋利润较高,老鸡淘汰意愿恐将有所减弱。新增开产量逐步增加,若老鸡出现延迟淘汰现象,后市在产蛋鸡存栏量恐将增加。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">根据芝华对蛋鸡存栏数据的统计监测,最新2015年11月育雏鸡补栏量较2015年10月portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb;">增加1.51%,同比portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb;">大幅增加43.74%。从规模方面来看,5万只以下规模蛋鸡养殖户育雏鸡补栏量增加,5万只-10万只规模蛋鸡养殖户育雏鸡补栏量增加,10万只以上规模蛋鸡养殖户育雏鸡补栏量减少。从分省来看,河北、河南、湖北、山东、山西增加,黑龙江、湖南、辽宁减少。育雏鸡补栏增加的原因为饲料养殖成本处于低位,每斤鸡蛋盈利较高,对养殖户补栏有一定的提振作用。(附注:育雏鸡指正在育雏阶段的蛋鸡,0个月~2个月之间大小的鸡。)

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 16portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold;">.蛋鸡空栏量

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芝华数据2015年11月

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 20px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-weight: bold; color: rgb;">蛋存栏数据发布会

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-weight: bold; color: rgb.在产蛋鸡存栏量

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">根据芝华对蛋鸡存栏数据的统计监测,最新2015年11月后备鸡存栏量为2.34亿只,较10月portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb;">增加1.82%,同比portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb;">减少5%。从规模方面来看,5万只以下规模蛋鸡养殖户后备鸡存栏量增加,5万只至10万只规模蛋鸡养殖户后备鸡存量增加,10万只以上规模蛋鸡养殖户后备鸡存栏量减少。从分省来看,河北、河南、湖北、湖南、山西增加,黑龙江、山东、辽宁减少。2015年11月份后备鸡增加的原因,主要是11月育雏鸡补栏量及青年鸡存栏量均有增加。portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">(附注:后备鸡存栏量指所有还未下蛋的蛋鸡,包括育雏鸡和青年鸡的总和。)

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">根据芝华对蛋鸡存栏数据的统计监测,最新2015年11月全国蛋鸡总存栏量为14.46亿只,较10月portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb;">减少0.69%,同比portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb;">增加3.47%。11月全国总存栏减少的原因是在产蛋鸡存栏减少量大于后备鸡存栏量增加量。(附注:全国蛋鸡总存栏包括在产蛋鸡和后备鸡的总和)

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">从分省来看,河北、湖北、湖南、山东、安徽减少,河南、黑龙江、辽宁、山西增加。11月份在产蛋鸡存栏减少的原因是新增在产蛋鸡量小于淘汰量,根据历史蛋鸡鸡龄结构及存栏数据推算,11月份新增开产量为0.5826亿只,淘汰量为0.7251亿只。11月新增在产量减少的原因是夏季补栏情况差,从10月份鸡龄结构可以看到,10月份90-120天的鸡龄占比虽略微增加,但占比依然偏少。老鸡经过10月份的一波淘汰后,11月份老鸡淘汰有所减少,主要原因是饲料养殖成本较低,目前每斤鸡蛋盈利较高,养殖户老鸡淘汰意愿减弱。(附注:在产蛋鸡存栏量反映当前鸡蛋的生产和供应能力,有助于预测短期鸡蛋价格

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">11月槎头市场到货结构:红蛋大码市场占比大于70%,红蛋中小码市场占比小于30%。粉蛋以大码为主,大码占比大于70%,中小码占比小于30%。

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">根据芝华对蛋鸡存栏数据的统计监测,最新2015年11月青年鸡存栏量较2015年10月增加,增加1.2%。从分省来看,河北、河南、湖北、湖南山西增加,黑龙江、山东、辽宁减少。从规模来看,5万只以下规模蛋鸡养殖户青年鸡存栏量增加,5万只-10万只以上规模蛋鸡养殖户青年鸡存栏量减少,10万只以上规模蛋鸡养殖户青年鸡存栏量减少。青年鸡存栏量一部分包括养殖户直接购买育雏鸡过1-2个月直接转换过来的青年鸡,一部分包括养殖户直接从育雏场购买的青年鸡。2015年11月份青年鸡存栏量增加的原因是秋季育雏鸡补栏增加。(附注:青年鸡指已过育雏阶段,但还没有开产的鸡,2个月~4个月之间大小的鸡)

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">库存方面,11月份库存较少,相比10月份有所减少,其中华北地区、东北地区、西南地区库存较少。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">贸易商走货、收货图解:

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 18portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">(注:因鸡龄统计的统计目的、抽样样本与统计方法与在产蛋鸡、后备鸡、育雏鸡、青年鸡、空栏量统计方法不一致,百分比有一定差异,但趋势保持一致。具体数据与百分比产蛋鸡、后备鸡、育雏鸡、青年鸡、空栏量发布数据为主)

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">2、当走货评分在收货评分下方时,鸡蛋价格处于下跌阶段。

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 19portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; font-weight: bold; color: rgb.按后备、产蛋期、即将淘汰蛋鸡鸡龄统计:

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portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">图片 21portant; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; float: none; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" />

portant; word-wrap: break-word !important;">portant; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 16px; font-family: 宋体, SimSun; color: rgb;">11月信立市场到货结构:红蛋大占比近70%,中小码占比30%。粉蛋大小码占比与红蛋类似。

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